Can South Asia afford another wave of militancy in Bangladesh?

New Delhi: After the mass-uprising in Bangladesh and the fall of the Sheikh Hasina led government, a deeply troubling trend has emerged in Bangladesh that threatens not only its internal stability but also the fragile peace of the broader South Asian region. The sudden and controversial release of over 300 individuals accused or convicted in militancy-related cases is not a matter of domestic politics alone — it is a regional security crisis in the making.

At the heart of this crisis is the post-August 5, 2024 reality of Bangladesh, where the military-backed government led by Muhammad Yunus has taken control amid controversy, suspicion, and fear. While Yunus’ rise was celebrated by some as a victory of civil society and global recognition, his government’s recent actions — or rather inactions — paint a far more complicated and disturbing picture.

Since the coup, courts and political actors in Dhaka have quietly overseen the release of individuals affiliated with some of the deadliest militant outfits in South Asia — including Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI), Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), and Hizb-ut-Tahrir. These groups have long been blacklisted not only by the Bangladeshi state but also by international counterterrorism frameworks.

Among those released are individuals convicted of murders, terror financing, bombings, and direct affiliations with transnational jihadist organisations. Some were involved in heinous crimes such as the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery attack, which left 22 people dead, including foreign nationals. Others plotted assassinations of secular bloggers, academics, and activists in a period between 2013 to 2016 saw Bangladesh battling a wave of extremist violence.

The current regime claims that many of these cases were politically motivated by the previous Awami League government. While legal redress is every citizen’s right, the sheer number, speed, and opacity surrounding these bail decisions have raised alarms among regional intelligence circles.

India, which shares a 4,096 km border with Bangladesh, cannot afford to take this lightly. Over the past decade, New Delhi has built a strong counter-terrorism partnership with Dhaka, leading to successful operations like the crackdown on JMB cells in West Bengal and Assam, the 2014 Burdwan blast probe, and real-time intelligence sharing to dismantle cross-border modules.

The release of hundreds of ideologically-committed militants — many of whom retain digital access, sleeper network connections, and sympathisers — risks reviving dormant extremist cells not just in Bangladesh but also within India’s vulnerable northeast. Already propaganda materials linked to groups like Hizb-ut-Tahrir and Al-Qaeda-centric Jamaatul Ansar Fil Hindal Sharqiya (JAFHS) are re-emerging on encrypted platforms.

Indian states like West Bengal, Assam, Meghalaya, and Tripura, which have historically been soft targets due to demographic complexity and porous terrain, could once again find themselves in the crosshairs.

The issue is not limited to India and Bangladesh alone. South Asia, as a region, is already fragile — torn by sectarian conflicts, refugee crises, climate displacement, and the growing shadow of geopolitical rivalries. The re-emergence of jihadi militancy in Bangladesh, a country once hailed for dismantling its extremist networks post-2016, could undermine regional cooperation frameworks such as BIMSTEC.

Worse still, it provides a fertile ground for global jihadist organizations like Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) and even ISIS-inspired groups to find new recruits and sanctuaries. These actors are adept at exploiting political vacuums, social disillusionment, and government missteps.

A militant resurgence in Bangladesh would thus not remain confined within its borders — it could spill over into Myanmar’s Rakhine state, India’s northeast, and even further west towards Afghanistan and Pakistan, as part of the broader jihadist movement.

The current government and its supporters argue that many of these released individuals have repented. Some clerics and community leaders, including individuals like Mufti Jasim Uddin Rahmani, now claim to denounce violence. But deradicalization is not a speech — it’s a process, often years long, requiring structured psychological support, education, and active monitoring.

Releasing dozens of individuals within weeks without proper vetting, rehabilitation, or public transparency suggests not reform, but recklessness. Worse, it reeks of political appeasement, especially if the current regime seeks to court Islamist groups as a counterbalance to the secular forces that once championed the anti-militancy stance.

What’s equally alarming is the growing narrative from certain government figures that the entire militancy crisis was a fabrication of the previous regime. This is not only historically false — it is a slap in the face of victims, survivors, and the countless security personnel who laid down their lives to preserve the nation’s peace.

In this stage, no one should stay silent. It is not only the security of Bangladesh but also the integrity of its counterterrorism investments in the region. The time has come for Bangladesh and India to initiate high-level bilateral talks specifically focused on security and militancy, while simultaneously reactivating intelligence cooperation frameworks to monitor the released individuals.

In addition, both countries should work together on the issue at BIMSTEC and other regional forums, pushing for a coordinated regional response mechanism to counter any resurgence of extremist activity. Equally important is the need to provide support to civil society organisations that are actively working on counter-radicalization, promoting secular education, and fostering community cohesion. Moreover, Both countries must advocate for international oversight, potentially through the United Nations or global human rights institutions, to ensure that justice and security are upheld during Bangladesh’s transitional phase.

South Asia stands today at a critical juncture. The peace it has enjoyed — though imperfect — has been hard-earned. Bangladesh’s battle against militancy, especially post-2016, was seen globally as a case study in resilience. Undoing that legacy through hasty political maneuvering is more than a miscalculation — it’s a threat.

For Yunus and his administration, the world is watching. For India, the message is clear: the neighbourhood is only as safe as its weakest link. If the current trajectory continues, it’s not just Bangladesh that will pay the price but an entire region already brimming with fault lines. The cost of inaction is too high. The time to act is now.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

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–IANS