Picture grim at Baku climate talks, just 100 hours left on clock

Baku, Nov 18 (IANS) Where does the world stand now on negotiations at the UN climate conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, that is focussed heavily on securing a new climate finance target for countries most vulnerable to climate impacts and what should we expect from week two in Baku?

“Failure is not an option,” blasted UN boss Antonio Guterres at the G20 summit late on Sunday.

“Last week was tough. It’s probably dawning on the COP29 hosts that they need to up their game. More on that on Monday when the main plenary opens. The sands of time are running out, with just over 100 hours left on the clock,” remarked an independent observer.

Guterres took aim at those deliberately trying to undermine COP (Conference of Parties) and climate action more generally: “We must also fight the coordinated disinformation campaigns impeding global progress on climate change, ranging from outright denial to greenwashing, to harassment of climate scientists.”

Reports from Rio late on Sunday suggest Saudi Arabia’s fingerprints were over efforts to delete key paragraphs backing the COP28 deal to quit fossil fuels.

At the COP29, cash is key. Bolivia’s intervention offered a clue on why this kicked off: “It is a finance COP, we expect developed countries to deliver, but not much so far. The Baku talks are now stuck in a form of circular firing squad, where unless there’s a sign that finance talks can progress, other negotiation streams face paralysis. Officials decided not to press the red ‘rule 16’ button, but the scope for further progress on GHG cuts in Baku seems limited, unless the finance track makes progress, and sharpish.”

“On releasing cash to boost Baku, expectations are low as leaders are claiming they don’t want to prejudge the COP29 talks, irrespective of how helpful a positive sign from major countries would be at this point,” remarked the observer.

The stakes: First, a new climate finance deal for developing countries; second, a new wave of 2035 climate targets ahead of a February 2025 deadline; and third, a signal that tackling climate change is game on, despite Donald Trump’s election win.

The COP29 Presidency led by Mukhtar Babayev, who led Azerbaijan’s delegation to five previous COPs, will need all his wiles this week as the pressure mounts.

A letter to governments over the weekend calls for “renewed determination, a spirit of compromise”, before adding, “the world is looking to us for leadership, courage, and results”.

Of course landing a new global finance deal at a time of global fiscal crisis and rampant populism was never going to be easy.

Climate activist Harjeet Singh, Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, told IANS, “As COP29 reaches its midpoint, it’s appalling to see climate finance negotiations at a standstill.

“Wealthy nations continue to treat critical climate finance as mere investments, ignoring that these funds are a lifeline for vulnerable countries grappling with the worst impacts of climate change.”

He said their failure to commit to an ambitious climate finance target, through grants, not loans, “jeopardises the entire conference and reflects a troubling preference for safeguarding their own interests over supporting global equity.”

“This week, developed countries must step up, commit to climate finance in the trillions, and recognise that true support means funding for transitioning away from fossil fuels, adaptation, and addressing loss and damage, not empty promises,” Singh added.

Will there be a deal on climate finance? Will it finish on time on Friday? Only time will tell.

The second part of the high-level segment will take place on November 19 and 20. This will be for parties whose heads of state and governments did not deliver a national statement during the first part.

India’s Minister of State for Environment, Forest and Climate Change Kirti Vardhan Singh will be leading a 19-member delegation and deliver India’s national statement at the high-level segment in the second segment.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change Bhupender Yadav had attended COP28 last year in Dubai.

India has so far played a key role in shaping global climate finance frameworks to address the urgent funding needed for both mitigation and adaptation efforts.

At Baku, India is seeking the New Collective Quantified Goal, a framework that aims to replace the annual commitment of $100 billion by 2020 made by developed countries in 2009 — a target met only once, in 2022.

(Vishal Gulati can be contacted at vishal.g@ians.in)

–IANS

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