DR Congo Ebola outbreak may be 3 times larger than official count: Africa CDC

Kinshasa, Aug 20 (IANS) The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) could be up to three times larger than the official tally, with only 30 to 40 per cent of cases currently being detected, the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said Thursday.

The continental public health agency said modelling by the DRC’s National Institute of Biomedical Research, in collaboration with Imperial College London and other partners, suggests the actual number of cases could already exceed 10,000 and may be as high as 15,000.

“The real burden… should be over 10,000 to 15,000 cases,” Kyeng Mercy, an Africa CDC official, told an online press briefing, while stressing that the figures are estimates based on modelling, Xinhua News Agency reported.

“Models also have their caveats in terms of uncertainty,” said Mercy. “We are just saying that we are not detecting as much as we should, based on certain indicators.”

According to the latest figures presented by the Africa CDC on Thursday, the DRC has recorded 5,105 confirmed cases, including 2,420 deaths. A total of 1,091 patients have recovered.

The outbreak, caused by the Bundibugyo ebolavirus, has spread to six provinces, namely Ituri, North Kivu, South Kivu, Haut-Uele, Tshopo and Bas-Uele. Two cases have recently been reported in Buta, the capital of Bas-Uele Province, close to the border with the Central African Republic.

Yap Boum II, head of the emergency preparedness and response division at the Africa CDC, said the number of infections being recorded remains well below the reality, partly because Bundibugyo Ebola can cause milder and less typical symptoms than those caused by the Zaire ebolavirus.

Less than 10 per cent of detected cases are currently among known contacts, while fewer than 40 per cent of cases have an epidemiological link to a confirmed case, he said.

The DRC declared the current Ebola outbreak on May 15. It has since become the country’s largest and deadliest Ebola epidemic on record and the second-largest globally.

–IANS

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