Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence promises under scrutiny as conventional military build-up rises: Report

Washington, Aug 15 (IANS) Pakistan’s strategic elite has long portrayed nuclear deterrence as an almost “absolute guarantee” of national security and territorial sovereignty. Under the doctrine of “full-spectrum deterrence”, the promise was that nuclear weapons would deter aggression across the entire spectrum of conflict. But that promise has proved both false and misleading, a report has stated.

“The world is witnessing a renewed interest in nuclear weapons. From nuclear modernisation plans in the United States, to growing anxieties in Europe and East Asia about the reliability of the US security umbrella, to discussions in South Korea, Canada, and elsewhere about acquiring nuclear weapons, the thinking about nuclear weapons appears to be shifting. But Pakistan shows something different and unexpected,” according to a report in US-based ‘Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’.

The report noted that during Operation Sindoor launched by the Indian military in May 2025 following the Pahalgam terror attack by a Pakistan-based terror group, Islamabad’s strategic elite was forced to confront a hard truth: nuclear weapons have limits. They cannot prevent every crisis or escalation of military conflict.

According to the report, recently Islamabad witnessed extensive public displays of conventional military power, with military leaders’ portraits and narratives of battlefield achievements, while nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles were notably absent from these displays.

“From public transport emblazoned with images and slogans of victory, to posters lining major roads, to the naming of a public square, the message was impossible to miss. Notably, however, nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable missiles were conspicuously absent from these images of militarisation. This was not because the state lacked the opportunity to showcase them. It was a deliberate effort to communicate a different message,” the report detailed.

Highlighting the military’s overarching influence in Pakistan, the report said the armed forces and their institutions derive greater political benefit from conventional military achievements than from nuclear capabilities.

“The bomb’s destructive power appears largely self-contained; its existence does not easily translate into visible demonstrations of military competence or leadership. Moreover, Pakistan’s nuclear programme was not solely the achievement of military institutions. The programme was populated largely by scientists and engineers, and the decision to test nuclear weapons in 1998 was ultimately taken by a civilian government,” it mentioned.

The report noted that the contrast between the assurances offered by nuclear deterrence and the realities on the ground has become increasingly difficult to overlook.

“What we see today is the replacement of nuclear weapons at the apex of military strategy with a greater emphasis on conventional militarism; this is precisely the reason why Pakistan sees a spike in its defence spending coupled with the establishment of a new Army Rocket Force Command,” it highlighted.

–IANS

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