Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Economic Tsunami’ claim debunked by strong macro fundamentals

New Delhi, June 30 (IANS) Rahul Gandhi’s hollow assertion that India is heading towards an “economic tsunami” is far removed from ground realities. Far from facing collapse, the Indian economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience, even amid the ongoing Middle East crisis, supported by robust data from credible institutions.

India posted robust 7.7% GDP growth in FY26, the fastest among major economies, according to Reserve Bank of India and Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Forex reserves stood at $682.3 billion as of late May, providing 11 months of import cover (RBI). The RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% while projecting 6.6% GDP growth and 5.1% CPI inflation for FY27.

According to the First Advance Estimates and subsequent revisions, India’s real GDP grew at a strong 7.7% in FY26, the fastest among major economies.

The International Monetary Fund raised its FY26 growth forecast to 7.3%, citing strong momentum.

This performance comes despite geopolitical tensions in West Asia, which have pushed global oil prices higher.

The RBI, while cautiously revising its FY27 growth forecast to 6.6% due to external risks, continues to highlight domestic demand resilience, manufacturing, and services expansion.

Inflation has been well-contained. Headline inflation averaged just 1.7% during April-December 2025 — the lowest since the CPI (consumer price index) series began — with the RBI revising its FY26 forecast down to 2.0%.

This disinflation provides ample policy space despite moderate pressures from global energy prices.

External sector buffers remain formidable. Foreign exchange reserves stood at a healthy 682.3 billion US dollars as of late May 2026, providing import cover for around 11 months and covering over 90% of external debt, according to the RBI.

Services exports continue to hit records, and remittances provide additional support.

India has actively managed Middle East risks through import diversification (including increased sourcing from Russia and the Americas), strategic reserves, and measures to boost domestic production.

Despite the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, the economy has avoided major disruptions, unlike many global peers. These figures from the RBI, IMF, and government releases clearly show an economy consolidating gains with strong fundamentals — broad-based growth, low inflation, healthy fiscal consolidation, and resilient labour markets.

Claims of an impending “tsunami” ignore this evidence of stability and growth potential. India remains a bright spot in a turbulent global landscape, well-positioned to navigate external shocks through prudent policy and structural strengths.

Earlier this month, BJP leader Amit Malviya recently took a sharp dig at Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, describing the latest GDP growth figures as a “tsunami” that has “washed away” his “latest sinister attempt to malign India.”

Malviya had highlighted that India recorded a strong 7.7 per cent growth in FY 2025–26, emerging as the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

The growth momentum was consistent across all quarters, with the economy expanding at 6.7 per cent in Q1, 8.4 per cent in Q2, 7.8 per cent in Q3, and 7.8 per cent in Q4.

In contrast, other major economies registered much lower growth. Germany grew at just 0.4 per cent, Japan at 0.8 per cent, the Euro Area at 1.3 per cent, and the G7 nations collectively at 1.6 per cent, Malviya had pointed out.

–IANS

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